NCAA Pick of the Day 12/06/24 (93-66): Manhattan +9.5 -110

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Analysis:

A controversial ranking; St Peters sits at 346th in net adjusted ShotQuality, and Manhattan is at 256th. That does not necessarily mean Manhattan is the better team, but that they are developing better shots and forcing opponents to take tougher ones. The Jaspers allow the 48th fewest 3PT attempts on defense at 34%, and are 121st in terms of quality of looks allowed at the rim. Which is good for a low major school, even though they do allow too many shots near the hoop.

Their opponents, the SPU Peacocks, are not primed to take advantage of any weak defense - they are 348th in SQ efficiency at the rim - and are 324th in turnover rate, plus they also allow a very high percent of shots at the rim, just like our Jaspers.

Analyzing recent results; Saint Peters has won three straight games, but ShotQuality expected losses against both Fairleigh Dickinson and UMBC. Meanwhile, Manhattan is coming off a loss to Le Moyne in which they were expected to win.

An SQ Spot similar to last night. Grab the Jaspers +9.5 and maybe consider a money line sprinkle...

Projection: SPU 72 - MAN 70

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