NCAA Pick of the Day 02/10/25 (119-92-1): Prairie View -1 -105

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Analysis:

A SWAC clash is usually something that most people have no interest in betting, but the leg up that ShotQuality's data gives us is something that we can not pass up on when dealing with teams that can easily fall through the cracks. In fact, it can probably be argued that SQ data is more likely to be successful against the market outside of the power conferences, but that's a claim that I have not proven in either direction. It certainly has felt that way to me in the last four years.

Nonetheless, today we have a strong advantage on PVAM in the model and theres real evidence to back up that this team is really only worth taking when playing at home. They are over performing expectations behind the arc by 13 percent in conference home games compared to the rest of their season where they are only over performing by two percent. What does that mean? They like their own gym. A lot of small teams do, almost to the point that the SQ data is saying that they can be expected to over perform. It sounds a bit weird but that large of a discrepancy in the regression numbers means something different to me.

With the data backing it up on a day marred by the emotional hangover of the Super Bowl and distracted by two high-major clashes, I'll sneak in to the SWAC and bet on a team I expect to win by at least two possessions. FAMU is not good.

SQ's Projection: PVAM 76 - FAMU 68.

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