NCAA Pick of the Day 01/07/25 (105-78): Baylor -5.5 -110

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Analysis:

The number one team in ShotQuality's net adjusted rankings is the Baylor Bears. They have the 5th best offense and 2nd best defense per SQ's location-based metrics. They are a top 10 team in expected 3PT shooting efficiency, develop some of the best spacing for their shots in Division 1, 19th best, to be exact. Plus, they force the 29th most turnovers on defense, and 11th most midrange shots.

So yeah, SQ likes the Bears a lot. That makes sense when you consider that SQ viewed all three of their most recent losses in a more favorable light, if not as a victory. Iowa State, on the road, massive loss - still loved the shots developed. UConn, on the road, six point loss, expected to just be one point. Tennessee, in the Bahamas, I watched that one with my own eyes, it was expected to be a single possession loss and that checks out. Tennessee didn't feel like they were clearly the best team and that's one of the best 5 teams in the country by most traditional metrics.

Cincinnati is also, still, overvalued. They were overvalued at home against Arizona as favorites and they're still, likely, overvalued here. They just are not a top 25 team, maybe they play like one in the non-conference, but on the road against Baylor who just got smacked up on the road against Iowa State... while getting good looks...

The idea is; if Baylor gets those same quality looks again here at home, they could run Cinci off the court by double digits. The model seems to think so and agree with me here. My personal line on this one is 9.5, so a just a bit less aggressive, but I recommend supporting the number one SQ team. This is a buy low opportunity on the Bears, against the Bearcats, in Texas. Lay the -5.5.

SQ's Projection: BAY 78 - CIN 67 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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