NCAA Pick of the Day 03/10/25 (133-102-1 ): NWST +4 -110

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Northwestern State's high-frequency midrange approach might seem outdated, but it sets up perfectly against a Texas A&M-Corpus Christi squad that allows opponents to attack the rim at an alarming rate (313th nationally). While NWST struggles with defensive rebounding and inefficiency at the rim, TAMCC's own offensive limitations—ranking 342nd in spacing and a minuscule 28.8% three-point attempt rate (354th nationally)—should keep this game closer than the line suggests. The Islanders do attack the rim at a high frequency (12th) and draw fouls effectively (74th in free throw rate), but their woeful 62.5% conversion rate from the charity stripe (362nd) negates much of that advantage and leaves points on the board in what projects as a lower-scoring affair given NWST's methodical pace (335th in tempo). TAMCC's inefficient perimeter shooting compounds their spacing issues and limits their ceiling, while Northwestern State's turnover problems (340th) should be somewhat mitigated by an Islanders defense that doesn't specialize in creating havoc. Though neither team inspires tremendous confidence, the matchup dynamics and TAMCC's self-inflicted limitations make the points too tempting to pass up in this spot.

SQ's Projection: TAMCC 70 - NWST 68.

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