NCAA Pick of the Day 01/17/25 (109-85): UCSD -9.5 -110

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Analysis:

I do not have time to get this done today, maybe that fixes the skid - but those would be independent events.

SQ's Projection: UCSD 75 - UCR 67 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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Yesterday's Pick Recap: Boise +3.5 ❌

Final Score: UNM 84 - BSU 65. Post-Game SQ Score: UNM 71.9 - BSU 7113. Pre-Game Projection: UNM 77 - BSU 75.

Takeaways: Quickly, these blowouts can give the wrong idea in the SQ score. At the half Boise was down 48 to 21. The SQ Score was 43-28. So they were getting unlucky by a few buckets in either direction, but also expected to be down 15. Sure, different than 27, but the game was done and the second half was largely not basketball played with the same competitive balance or prerogative of getting the best shot. Winning team coasts, losing team embraces variability and shoots as many threes as possible to have any chance whatsoever. It creates an inaccurate estimation environment. The game was over quickly.

Recaps are a NEW section to the POTD to help illustrate how SQ data can be used to qualify bets beyond winning and losing!