NCAA Pick of the Day 12/22/24 (101-73): Missouri St -1 -108

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Analysis:

NOTE: The POTD will be on holiday break next week, and will return on Saturday, December 28th.

Missouri St is in a great buy low position on this Sunday afternoon game, they just lost to Washington St by 13 points on the road and before that, allowed a home loss by 3 points to an Indiana State team that most see as weak following the departures, en-masse, of talent and coaching after the near-miss last March.

The thing is, as regular readers might be able to guess, SQ sees things a bit differently. The Indiana St. loss was an expected 8 point win. The WSU double-digit road L was expected to be just a one point loss. Now the Bears return home significantly doubted in the market.

They are a strong rebounding team, get to the free throw line at a high rate, force turnovers and then are effective in transition. They do need to avoid ISOs and take more threes. Our opponent for today is UCSB, who SQ expects to see negative regression offensively and positive regression defensively... a.k.a. theyre scoring more than they should and teams are missing against them more than expected.

This is an "SQ Spot" if I've ever seen one. Take the cheap line, or the ML... there is value on this Missouri St. team today.

SQ Projection: MOST 72 - UCSB 66.5

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