NCAA Pick of the Day 12/13/24 (95-69): Boston University +5.5 -115

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Analysis:

The Boston Terriers take the 45 minute drive to North Andover this evening to face Merrimack, the newest member of the MAAC, who is looking to build off a strong 21-12 final year in the NEC.

In this local battle, we will be supporting the Boston Terriers, or the dogs, if you will. Why? Well, because ShotQuality has Merrimack rated outside the top 300 teams in Division 1, and they are being priced as though they are closer to a top 200 team.

This is easy understand with SQ's game scores. Merrimack is coming off a win over Niagara, in conference, where they won by 18 points. ShotQuality expected just a one point victory. The game before that; a 8 point win expected to be 4 points over Canisius. And the one prior; a 72-68 win over Troy that was expected to be a 48-71 loss.

SQ Says: Don't give credit for luck.

Merrimack has been getting lucky, underneath the hood they take bad shots, have middle of the pack shooting, bottom tier rebounding and move like molasses.

While Boston is not fantastic either, this is line sitting closer to two possessions and it should likely be closer to one. The SQ Model has five and I'm fine with not agreeing perfectly with it. Boston has a strong Rim & Three rate, and forces opponents into the midrange on defense at the 40th highest clip in the nation. They excel at both chasing opponents off the three point line, but also at defending attempts from deep when foes do get a look.

Defense travels, local battle, SQ supported - lets go Terriers.

Projection: Merrimack 68 - Boston College 63

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