NCAA Pick of the Day 02/22/25 (126-95-1): Green Bay +12.5 -102

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Analysis:

"Please write an article that can convince people to bet on Green Bay today against Youngstown."

I'm sorry Dave, I can't do that.

That's a little GPT Kubrick crossover joke for ya to start this absolutely brutal ask of a Sunday play off the right way. Look, there's no way around it, Green Bay has largely been a laughing stock this season - but even when the media might have created a consensus around a team's season, that doesn't mean they become un-bettable, usually quite the opposite.

Sure they are 3-24 on the season but they have started to turn the corner in regards to underlaying performance, which isn't all that uncommon for a first year head coach. In fact, I'll go as far as to say that I think Coach Doug Gottlieb could easily have a winning ATS record next season... he's only 12-15 this year, with an SQ ATS record of of 15-12. Three of those spread wins have come in the last four, which is indicative of what the SQ data has been showing, too.

All three of the last games in the Horizon have looked very solid for the Phoenix, expected to only lose by four points on the road to Robert Morris (nine-point actual loss), beating Wright State at home (SQ Win) and a thirteen point loss to NKU (that SQ expected to just be three points). Now they are matching up against a Youngstown team that has been over performing at the rim all season, while Green Bay has been a bit unlucky.

So, you can call it an "SQ Spot" again, like last night, if you'd like... it is one, theoretically, but Green Bay is such a unique team that it's tough to call their expected positive regression accurate. It should be accurate enough with the combination of Youngstown's over performance... the Penguins were expected to lose to both IU Indy and Cleveland State on the road in Horizon League play this year, but eked out unexpected wins.

It's an ugly ask but getting a full four possessions and the hook should be enough to bring home the value on this line. SQ's model has it at 9 points, and it's the best value from the model of any play I am independently taking, myself. So yeah, take the spooky spread on Green Bay, it is the best play on the board.

SQ's Projection: YSU 77 - GB 68.

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