NCAA Pick of the Day 03/04/25 (130-100-1): UNLV +3.5 -110

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The Runnin Rebels face up against a San Diego State team tonight that has officially entered, 'they cant keep getting way with this" territory. The Aztecs hold a 24% negative record luck mark, a number correlated with six bonus, unexpected, fake wins that have come on the back of a defense that is considered to be much worse than it looks.

The efficiency metrics will call SDSU a top 15 defense by points allowed per possession. ShotQuality sees a defense outside of the top 80 in the nation, that is lucky opponents are shooting 11% worse than expected from midrange against them for the entire season; 43% compared to the actual 32%. The same thing occurs from behind the arc and at the rim. In all, SDSU is expected to allow nearly 12% more points per possession and with the knowledge that ShotQuality is proven to be more correct than on-court performance, this team becomes one of the must-fade sides if using this data.

It hardly would matter who they are upgainst, unless it was another massively over performing side that warranted the same skepticism, then we would be taking a bet against San Diego St. You can probably assume that holds true until their defense starts to look more like what we expect, rather than what has luckily happened...

Grab the points, consider the ML. The price against SDSU is simply inflated.

SQ's Projection: UNLV 72.5 - SDSU 66.5.

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