NCAA Pick of the Day 01/01/25 (103-75): Howard +14.5 -115

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Analysis:

Hello, and Happy New Year... though... c'mon... the new year started in November when the College Basketball season tipped off.

Today's top pick pulled from SQ's location-based data is on a big dog in the Howard Bison. A 14.5 point line is MASSIVE... but especially for teams that SQ has ranked just 50 spots away from each other in Adjusted Net SQ. For comparison, efficiency models have these teams separated by over 150 spots.

Oftentimes, we have a single team that is under or over performing that we make our play on. Or, at least, one that is doing so more drastically to create an edge in the market. Today, however, both these teams are seen as advantageously different than the market in our favor by a sizable amount.

Some tidbits about these teams: Howard is playing like a 5-6 team, not a 3-8 team. Howard is a top 20 team in SQ 3PT shooting efficiency and their defense is expected to be playing better by 0.07 PPP. Yale is getting lucky on shots both in the post and at the rim on defense, but they're also hot by 3% from both three and midrange.

Regression is coming and this is far too many points for a Howard team that can hold their own in Division 1.

Projection: YALE 78 - HOW 70

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