NCAA Pick of the Day 01/22/25 (110-86): UTSA +12.5 -110

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Analysis:

UAB is a team whose construction and play style fascinates me. They are one of the most potent teams at the rim, rebound well on the offensive glass and defend the three well without incurring turnovers while in possession. That sounds like a team you'd want to support, but not today.

Why? Because they're over performing relative the market in their recent games and they're likely over priced as a result. The Blazers won both of their last two games, on the road, by 5 and 11 points, respectively. SQ expect a net win margin of -0.25 and 0.98 wins rather than the 2 that they came away with.

Enter UTSA, a turnover forcing machine that has shooters. How do we know they have shooters? They're second in efficiency from the free throw line, and top 100 in expected efficiency from deep. They develop good spacing but struggle a bit on the boards, so that will need to be a focus to keep UAB from getting too many extra possessions.

The value on the Roadrunners comes from their underperforming defense, they've opponents shoot 4% better form deep, at the rim and in the midrange for the entire season. Their defense is better than advertised and UAB is riding some luck to look this good recently. The number is, thus, likely too high. Take the points!

SQ's Projection: UAB 84 - UTSA 74 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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