NCAA Pick of the Day 03/27/25 (137-104-1): BYU +5 -115

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The Sweet Sixteen clash between BYU and Alabama pits the nation's 4th-most efficient rim-attacking team against college basketball's fastest tempo (1st), setting the stage for what should be a blistering offensive showcase at the Prudential Center. BYU's high-frequency three-point attack (22nd nationally with 47.8% of shots from deep) seems perfectly positioned to exploit Alabama's glaring defensive weakness, as the Crimson Tide rank an abysmal 344th in quality of three-pointers allowed while simultaneously forcing almost no turnovers (352nd). The Cougars' excellent passing (15th) and spacing (20th) should create open looks all night against an Alabama defense that has surrendered 80+ points seven times in their last ten games, though BYU's own perimeter defense (339th in three-point attempts allowed) gives Alabama's shooters similar opportunities. Keba Keita's interior presence will be crucial for the Cougars as Alabama boasts the nation's 45th most efficient rim attack, but BYU's ability to limit shots at the rim (13th) could be the difference-maker in a game likely to come down to the final possessions. With both teams possessing top-10 offenses according to KenPom but wildly different tempos, BYU's disciplined approach and three-point barrage should keep them within striking distance against an Alabama team that doesn't create enough defensive disruption to pull away — take the Cougars and the points in what should be an instant March classic.

SQ's Projection: ALA 82.7 - BYU 82.6

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