NCAA Pick of the Day 01/05/25 (104-77): Washington +8.5 -108

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Analysis:

There's plenty of market support for Illinois who just rolled Oregon by a score of 109 to 77 on the road. But ShotQuality expected that to be a 85 to 80 win for Illinois, on a game that closed with a 4.5 point spread...

So, in the eyes of the most predictive basketball analytics there is, that game went almost exactly as expected.

To everyone else, Illinois looks great... and that’s not to say they are not great... but shooting 16 for 29 from three including 11 of 19 on guarded threes is their best performance of the year so far and very unlikely to happen again.

From that standpoint, alone, there is value on this game, but the Washington offense is also under performing; they own an expected increase of efficiency of around 3%, coming from both jump shots and layups.

The Huskies get to the free-throw line at a high rate and on defense they forced the 29th worst shot selection for opponents, which in the top 10th percentile. Make no doubt, Illinois is a strong team, top 20 in SQ, but Washington still comes at a significant discount here tonight, at home, getting close to three possessions.

The projection model feels a bit aggressive, but I do like that it does have strong value on this game tonight. There is always the added bonus, especially off a big win, for Illinois' priority being simply securing another victory rather than covering an arbitrary number against a hungry newcomer in the conference. Take the points.

Projection: ILL 75 - WASH 74

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