NCAA Pick of the Day 01/23/25 (111-86): California +1.5 -108

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Analysis:

California hosts FSU tonight for a west coast ACC battle. Yes, it still sounds weird, but it creates new and exciting matchups to analyze.

ShotQuality sees the Bears as a buy low opportunity, even after the NC St. win on the road, and as a slight home underdog. The location based data expected a median result of victory for Cal. against VT, Clemson and Pitt., all within the month of January.

They get good looks from the floor and force opponents into the 28th most midrange shots in the nation. Cal is efficient attacking the rim but ends up in too many isolation possessions, themselves. Look for them to get to the free throw line at a high clip, as the Bears shoot frees on 40% of their possessions (Top 50 rate) while FSU allows free throws at 40% (Bottom 75 rate) as well.

While FSU isn't over performing nor underperforming this season, their half court offense rates 16th in the conference thus far this season and Cal is the best half court defense... that could generate the few extra possessions we need.

This is largely being seen as a very slight advantage for FSU, if this were to be on a neutral court. However, at Cal, I make this close to a three point projected with for the Bears, which is close to what the SQ model makes it, too.

Take the extra 1.5 points, as this could be a close one - the money line is a fair alternate as well.

SQ's Projection: CAL 76 - FSU 73 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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