NCAA Pick of the Day 02/12/25 (120-93-1): California +23.5 -110

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Analysis:

California has been a team that ShotQuality's metrics have been high on all season long, tonight is no different. The Bears limit opponents attempts from deep and defend the basket well based on the locations of the shots allowed. Offensively, SQ sees their three point shooting and rim attack as severely underperforming, and even against a formidable side like Duke, is still worth buying into against the number the market is offering.

Don't get it twisted, Duke is not going to lose this game unless they're only allowed to field three players. Even then, Cooper Flagg plus two might still get some buckets... I digress, that doesn't matter at all. We just care about this game staying within the 23 point range.

If Cal keeps the threes to a low and experiences any type of offensive progression to the mean, this should be doable. It's a big ask, a hold your nose bet, if you will... but if betting huge favorites at home was a cheat code to win, casinos would be smaller.

SQ's Projection: DUKE 82 - CAL 66.

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