NCAA Pick of the Day 02/26/25 (129-95-1): Valpo +4.5 -110

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Analysis:

What a run, folks. What. A. Run.

This is an aberration and we will return to our 55% or so norm over time, do not get over confident. I bet the same amount on every POTD. You should too.

Valpo is a team that has two very solid core factors to their play style, they do not incur turnovers and also hit their free throws at a high rate. They do struggle shooting from deep, and defending the rim a bit, and defending the three... but theyre a strong rebounding team that develops good spacing and the shots they take are usually open looks.

I believe we played Valpo when they last faced Bradley on the road and lost by just six, SQ had four, but that was a double digit spread, and I think we see a similar result where the market is wrong about this matchup today.

The Bradley Braves have a similar look to our Beacons, not so great defending the threes but good spacing. The key difference is, Bradley is a good shooting team that opts to take jumpers rather than attack the rim. The threes will fall for Bradley, but I don't see them getting too many second chances or free points off turnovers. That should be enough for Valpo to keep this within one possession at home, or as the SQ Bets model predicts, steal an win and boost their Arch Madness seeding in a few weeks time.

SQ's Projection: VALP 76 - BRAD 72.

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