NCAA Pick of the Day 02/20/25 (124-94-1): Morehead State +2.5 -110

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Analysis:

The Morehead Eagles are a strong defensive rebounding team (13th best in the nation) and also keep a tight lid on the rim (35th lowest at the rim ShotQuality allowed against). The lockdown defense leads to opponents developing the worst shots against them in the conference, to the point that they are in the top ten half court defenses nation wide this season.

They do struggle on offense, as is painfully obvious quite quickly. The Eagles are outside the top 300 in attacking the rim, shooting from deep and developing spacing, which likely is a main factor in the aforementioned issues. They do manage to hold on to the ball well, and develop an advantage in Free Throw attempts frequently. Their struggles at the rim, while expected to be bad, are actually going even worse. That might not sound appealing, but it should. This is a good buy spot on a team that likely should do better at the rim...

Their opponents, SIUE, are going to be a tough rim defense to crack (7th best nationally) - but a lack of success at the rim for opponents has not always yielded wins for the Panthers, but they are just as inept as Morehead is offensively.

SIUE is 4-1 in their five February games, thus far, and ShotQuality expected them to go 2-3. This is a good spot to sell high on them on the road. They are likely a similarly strong team as Morehead which would make a realistic spread closer to a full possession favorite for the Eagles. This is what the SQB model has as well. Grab the home underdog.

SQ's Projection: MORE 68 - SIUE 64.

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