NCAA Pick of the Day 11/30/24 (90-64): Oregon St -10.5 -110

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Analysis:

Another case of 'SQ sees things a bit differently.' Today's topic, UC Davis. Sitting at 318th in adjusted ShotQuality, the Aggies have seen a recent win over Grand Canyon that is potentially giving them too much credit, especially since the 76-68 win was graded as an expected 74-84 loss, with GCU going cold.

ShotQuality says don't give teams credit for their opponent shooting badly, grade the game based on how good the shots were - and UC Davis allows opponents to develop good shots. To be specific, they rank 348th in defensive shot selection, which means less than 5% of all college basketball teams allow better looks on defense. They foul at a high rate, and allow the 350th worst defensive open-three rate. On offense UC Davis turns the ball over often and ends possessions in Isolation looks too often to be reliable. Oregon State's size at the rim should eep this weak shooting team from getting favorable looks, winning by more than 11 points should be well within the potential outcomes with an edge against the market in our favor.

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