NCAA Pick of the Day 03/05/25 (131-100-1 ): Boston College +14.5 -110

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This isn't an easy one to put your money down on, but sometimes those are the best bets on the board. Boston College plays defense that ranks just outside the top 100 in ShotQuality's rankings, it's just their offense ranks outside the top 200. So where's the edge? Well, for the most part, they've been taking a bit of a beating at the rim. Nothing too substantial, but a 1.5% to 2% defensive difference between conference play and the season on a shot type that accounts for close to 40% of the shots they've faced, can change games by a point or two on average over the season. They have buoyed it with stronger than expected defense in the midrange, but in general, they are expected to be better as a defense.

The Eagles also do a phenomenal job keeping opponents out of transition, limiting easy points, which will be crucial against a potent half court attack from Clemson. The Tigers, though, are winners of three expected losses over their current six game win streak. This is likely going to be an inflated number, on the road, late in the season.

The SQB model is a bit aggressive, but I think this one should be priced a bit closer to +8.5 and is playable to +11.

SQ's Projection: CLEM 72 - BC 69.

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