NCAA Pick of the Day 12/14/24 (96-69): Belmont -1.5 -110

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Analysis:

Three of the last four plays have gotten home, and with a packed day of action let's keep it as basic as possible with this play...

Belmont is playing a Richmond team that ShotQuality ranks at 249th overall. Both of the Spiders wins were expected to be lesser results, with a win over Ball State expected to be a loss.

We always pose the question, 'What if SQ's results had occurred instead of the actual?' in order to determine where we might have an edge on the market. If Richmond played to their SQ, this line would be closer to -3. Then if you factor in Belmont's high level 3PT shooting (36th best) against Richmond's bad defense against the three (331st best) and high frequency of threes allowed (342nd most), this could become a matchup nightmare for the spiders.

The projection model is on market with the opener, but I'll take the underlaying data and SQ scores to be more predictive than any derivative of it - even if it's our own in-house system. Go Bruins!

Projection: Richmond 80 - Belmont 78

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