NCAA Pick of the Day 01/08/25 (106-78): Omaha +1.5 -118

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Analysis:

There are few greater disrespects than being made the underdog on your own floor. You better believe that smart coaches have long used, 'they're saying we're going to lose!' to fire up their teams. Tonight should be no different for this Omaha squad. They should believe that they are at the same level as the UMKC Roos across the floor, because they are.

ShotQuality's location based-metrics, which are more accurate, faster, than normal box-score metrics, indicate that UMKC and Omaha are as near to even in their composite strengths and weaknesses as two teams can get. The Mavericks are a bit better on defense, and the Roos are a bit better on offense, but largely - it's about even, per SQ.

The stereotypical response from most college basketball projection models is to set a line near -3 for the home team when two nearly-even squads matchup. So it should come as no surprise that the SQ model is at Omaha -4 today. I am fully on board with that projection, and you can take the ML if you prefer but the +1.5 to protect from an all-too-common in-conference one-point loss should carry value.

Digging into the matchup, this play is a bit more on the side of 'UMKC is over rated,' rather than the opposite. Only two teams in D1 shoot less shots at the rim, and the Roos are experiencing a net gain of 5% from behind the arc against their expectations. That means the sum of the deviation between their 3PT shooting and their opponents 3PT shooting is a net of 5% in their favor. They're shooting 1.9% too hot and opponents are 3.5% too lucky. That is substantial.

Here at SQ, you will find we usually go against what is happening. It isn't just that simple, it's about picking the best spots in which to do so, and we do sometimes verify that a hot/cold streak is legitimate. But, honestly, in college basketball, most are not- UMKC included. The Roos have won six straight, but SQ only graded one of them as a win by more than a single possession, and three came back as losses.

Four of those six games have been at home and I truly cannot emphasize enough how lucky they were to beat Wichita on the road. Shockers made just three threes in that one. UMKC were expected to have 2.43 wins in the span in which they have gained 6. Now, on the road, against a good rebounding team that takes care of the ball and might be able to keep up their own hot shooting, at home in Omaha... I like the price we're being offered.

No audible, but we are going no huddle. Grab the +1.5 at -118 and look for Omaha to get it done in their first Summit League home game.

Just yell it once with a good Blue 42, you know you want to...

SQ's Projection: NEOM 72 - UMKC 68 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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