NCAA Pick of the Day 12/31/24 (103-74): Abilene -3.5 -108

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Analysis:

Typically, a three point home favorite is a line assigned to teams that are equally matched when on a neutral floor. Given that this is not a conference matchup and that ACU does not have an especially strong home court impact, maybe we should call it a 2.5 point boost. Nonetheless, today's POTD is on a line that is awfully close to that indication of evenly matched, but are simply not.

No, Stephen F. Austin and Abiline are not similar, regardless of what their efficiency metrics might indicate at this point in their seasons. I'm not even sure what in the efficiency metrics created this line, that's not really my job to understand, but what I can tell you is that SQ sees ACU as an unlucky team that is expected to be both scoring more and allowing less points based on regression indications. SFA is also expected to be scoring more, but they are expected to allowing more points on defense, too, for a net of almost zero SQPPP in regression. Abilene is close to 0.10 in our favor.

ACU has a few early season results on the road that they went cold during, which I think is dragging them down a bit in the rankings. They've looked more than fine at home and should be able to force turnovers and get to the free-throw line comfortably.

SFA does not defend the 3PT shot well, they turn the ball over frequently and shoot poorly from the charity stripe. Lay it with the wildcats for the last POTD of 2024!

Projection: ACU 71 - SFA 62

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