NCAA Pick of the Day 02/3/25 (114-91-1): UAB -2.5 -110

Never miss a pick! Sign up for the POTD email on the home page!

Analysis:

There's still meat on the bone, so to speak, in regards to getting value by betting against a North Texas team that has gotten lucky defensively and fed into their long existing narrative of clamping opponents every attempt.

UNT was a top 20 defense for a couple years, and again are in the top 40 in terms of defensive efficiency, but ShotQuality sees things a bit differently. When factoring in the location based data, the Mean Green are closer to a top 75 team and are expected to be allowing an additional three points per 100 possessions.

Enter UAB and Yaxel Lendbourg, who own a top 10 rim efficiency based on expected numbers. The Mean Green are about to get hit by what should amount to exactly the type of offense that will expose their luck. The offensive rebounding and the frequency at which the Blazers attack the rim will wear down any defensive unit. Their ability to do so without incurring a high level of turnovers ensures a good chance the UAB gets the victory by more than three points.

North Texas will likely fall into too many Isolation looks that won't be able to keep pace with what UAB brings. The SQ model is likely spot on, this game should be a five to six point contest.

SQ's Projection: UAB 75 - UNT 70 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

Get 15% OFF your first purchase with Code: "POTD" !!

Watch Tonight's Game with ShotQuality Live FOR FREE - SQLive is the only live regression data software with up-to-the-minute expected scores!

Get all 5500+ College Basketball games with SQLive, plus NBA and WNBA games included only with Premium Yearly Membership!

& make sure to watch BetCast to see SQLive in action and learn more about ShotQualityBets!