NCAA Pick of the Day 02/6/25 (117-91-1): Fairfield +5 -110

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Analysis:

Fairfield takes its third swing as our team of choice in the last two weeks. Why? Because they're underperforming like mad, I say! Well, the data is what's saying it, but this is not only a play on our darling Stags, who pushed (tied the spread, wager returned) last time out, it is a play against Marist, as well.

Fairfield was expected to reward us with two winners in our two bets, per the SQ data, with Quinnipiac -12 expected to be a two point loss, not a push, and Merrimack -4 was expected to a win, rather than the massive blowout.

What does that mean for us? That Fairfield is distinctly undervalued as they set up to host the MAAC leading, newly renamed, Marist University, who is 6-1 in conference play. It's a great 'spot' as the casuals say, and they're probably right, for what it's worth, why wouldn't Fairfield have their sights set here, on the clubhouse leader, after feeling wronged and as though they're playing well for the last few games, just without the results to show for it.

That's where SQ steps in and gives us the proverbial X-ray vision to see through the box scores to the process. Fairfield does not turn the ball over much, which leads to few transition buckets, and when opponents do get to run the fast break, the Stags defend well. A home court, half court slog is what we want, along with Marist shooting 33% against, rather than the brutal 38% that Fairfield opponents have been cashing in at from deep in MAAC play.

Fairfield is underrated as Marist is overrated. The Red Foxes are credited with three beneficial unexpected results and just one detrimental result in conference play, giving them a net of two wins over their predicted median record if the results were re-simulated based on the exact shots taken. A team's record doesn't influence the lines much, but the increased efficiency above their true norm, which led to those wins, does.

Thus, there's a real chance that Marist and Fairfield are quite similarly effective under the hood, one just happens to be on the opposite side of the luck spectrum as the other, and the unlucky one gets to put their foot down, at home, against the cream of the league... who might just be a bit of a fluke!

The SQ model get's aggressive with the whole fluke thing, and I like it. A projected win seems bold, but it's the MAAC, anything can happen. I project it Fairfield +1.5, plenty of value when getting +5. Let's get this win, Stags!!

SQ's Projection: FAIR 69 - MAR 64 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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