NCAA Pick of the Day 01/28/25 (112-90): St Louis +5.5 -110

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Analysis:

Saint Louis is a lethal shooting team, ranking 17th in expected three-point efficiency and 11th in three-point attempt rate. Their offense thrives on pick-and-roll sets (12th in frequency) and spacing (19th), creating open looks. They intelligently take just 7% of their shots from the midrange and are exactly the type of attack you want to bet on. Even more so, they've been colder on jump shots than SQ expects, so we are in a buy low period for what Coach Schertz is doing in his first year in the A10.

Defensively, they hold their own against drives to the rim, which will be especially important tonight against VCU who has the 13th best expected efficiency at the rim this season and will create plenty of battles for offensive rebounds. If SLU allows the Rams to win the boards, they'll need to hit a high level of threes in exchange. VCU games feature low numbers of threes from both the Rams, themselves, and their opponents, so we'll have to see how that unfolds. Regardless, their defense has been benefitting from opponents getting a bit unlucky against them, so this is a good double whammy, sell high spot on the road for VCU in a conference that has the 5th best home win rate thus far this year.

The SQB Model has this as a victory for the Billikens, and while I don't have that same level of confidence, I do make it +2.5 so there's value on taking the points. Good luck!

SQ's Projection: SLU 74 - VCU 73. Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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