NCAA Pick of the Day 02/19/25 (123-94-1): Illinois St +1.5 -110

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Analysis:

The Redbirds are a strong rebounding team that excels in shooting the three and forces the issue by taking a lot of them (29th most, 46.9% 3PA%). They develop good spacing which leads to one of the most potent half court offenses in the nation. Unfortunately, they allow on of the highest rates of threes and defend them terribly on the other side of the court, so just like it might be easy to predict, their season has been very up and down.

Illinois state has currently lost three in a row after winning five of six prior, and now returns home to face Bradley, who just won on the road at Drake.

That game was expected to be a loss for the Bradley Braves, who have been amongst the luckiest teams in ShotQuality's metrics. They are 20-6 but their SQ Record is 12-14. Some of the most clear cut fades have long appeared this obvious (think UNC Asheville last March), but it can be hard to go against teams that 'look' this good. Bradley does develop high level spacing, and shoot the ball well, but the issue is they rely on very high level shot making on offense, and if some of the tough looks don't fall, they do not have the shot volume to win games, alone.

The advanced metrics will never like that approach, and that's a big part of why the SQB model has this as a more definitive win for ISU. I agree that this is a great sell high on Bradley, who will be tough pressed to keep this level of performance going. It's possible they stay hot, but it's not as likely as the price implies.

SQ's Projection: ILST 76.5 - BRAD 69.

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