NCAA Pick of the Day 03/13/25 (135-103-1): Boise +1.5 -110

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The classic clash of tempos features Boise State (300th in pace) trying to control the game against New Mexico's breakneck speed (6th nationally). The Broncos bring elite defensive rebounding (1st) to the table, which should neutralize second-chance opportunities against a Lobos squad that also rebounds well defensively (8th). Where Boise creates significant advantages is in their efficiency attacking the rim (15th) combined with their proficiency in transition (18th), allowing them to maximize their limited possessions in what projects to be a slower game than New Mexico prefers. The free throw line presents another compelling edge for the Broncos, who shoot an impressive 77.9% (23rd) compared to New Mexico's woeful 68.3% (309th), with both teams drawing fouls at a similar rate. The Lobos' lack of three-point shooting frequency (333rd) plays into Boise's middling perimeter defense (69th), while New Mexico's turnover-forcing defense (35th) might be neutralized by the deliberate pace that favors the Broncos. In a game likely to feature fewer possessions than the Lobos prefer, back Boise's efficiency to overcome the small spread in what should be a closely contested battle.

SQ's Projection: BOISE 78 - UNM 71.

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