NCAA Pick of the Day 12/18/24 (99-71): New Mexico -3.5 -105

Never miss a pick! Sign up for the POTD email on the home page!

Analysis:

A loaded Wednesday night leaves us plenty of options, and the top pick for today is no slouch. I am viscerally excited about this bet. The New Mexico Lobos are coming off a loss to in-state rival, New Mexico State, at home that ShotQuality expected to be a thirty point win.

They play a VCU team that is over rated off of wins over Miami and Georgia Southern that were expected to go much worse. Let's do a little thought experiment: If VCU had lost to Miami, they would look as though they have no wins over good schools... but yet they're priced as though they'd be even with this New Mexico team on a neutral floor.

That's just not right.

I'm not saying VCU is bad, they should be in consideration to make a run come early March, but right now? They allow too many open threes and foul too much for my liking.

New Mexico's tempo and high steal rate should force the issue at the Free Throw line in favor of the Lobos. I expect them to win this with less trouble than this line implies.

Projection: UNM 79 - VCU 70.5

Watch Tonight's Game with ShotQuality Live FOR FREE - SQLive is the only live regression data software with up-to-the-minute expected scores!

Get all 5500+ College Basketball games with SQLive, plus NBA and WNBA games included only with Premium Yearly Membership!

& make sure to watch BetCast to see SQLive in action and learn more about ShotQualityBets!