NCAA Pick of the Day 12/15/24 (98-69): Illinois Chicago +3 -110

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Analysis:

Why change what works? This Sunday matinee is a massive edge in the ShotQuality rankings and a beautiful 'SQ Spot,' as I like to call them.

UIC is currently the 126th best team by net adjusted ShotQuality (adjSQ), which is the combination of the expected points allowed per possession on defense and gained on offense. Little Rock is the 346th team by adjSQ...

Now, let's make one thing clear, ShotQuality is not intended for use as a power ranking system. Teams X spots above position Y on a normal distribution do not always perform the same way, as is the implication in a majority of this style of model. However, it still is a great indicator of the market's perception of a team versus their underlying process.

Little Rock's process is bad, and yet is getting better results than expected recently. In their last contest they defended home court against in-state rival, Central Arkansas, by four points. SQ said it was an expected four point loss fueled by an 0-for-11 midrange shooting performance from Central Arkansas.

SQ Says... no credit for luck!

The opposite is true for UIC, they recently lost a home matchup to Northern Iowa that they were expected to win.

We could go further, ULR allows too many threes, turns the ball over too much and takes too many midrange shots. UIC is great from three offensively and strong defending beyond the arc, as well, to go with a fast tempo.

Glad to see the projection agree today, but it's not as important as correctly using the underlaying data. The ML is in play here too, but for the POTD, take the points.

Projection: UIC 75 - Little Rock 72

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