NCAA Pick of the Day 12/05/24 (94-67): Charleston Southern +2 -108

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Analysis:

ShotQuality and the case of the wrong team favored - a classic tale in which the most predictive data in basketball rates the underdog at 209th and the favorite at 322nd in net adjusted SQ. How will our protagonist make it through tonight's mystery? Will it be Charleston Southern's strong, 21st rated, 92.3% Rim & Three Rate? It's a distinct indication that they are playing basketball the smart way, getting high value shots, and creating opportunities to win. CSHO is 4-6 Against the Spread, but SQ expects a 8-2 ATS record thus far in 2024-25.

South Carolina St, tonight's dastardly favorite, does the opposite, they take the 46th most midrange shots in Division 1 basketball. They turn the ball over at a high rate and allow opponents to take high quality shots from three point range.

This is a true low-major affair, and will feature some ugly shots - but Charleston Southern has the advantage of having proven they take good shots, even if they haven't fallen as expected. SCST's half court offense is expected to generate only 0.90 points per possession, if the Buccaneers can limit transition opportunities and take care of the ball, this should be a chance to get a big road win.

Projection: CHSO 72 - SCST 72

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