NCAA Pick of the Day 02/18/25 (122-94-1): Mississippi State -2.5 -110

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Analysis:

This is the SQuper Bowl if there ever was one. For there to be such a discrepancy at this point of the season on teams in the best conference in basketball is rare...

All year these have been two teams in the SEC that ShotQuality's metrics have been polarized on, and in the opposite direction. Thus, when they meet, we get a 'trust the data' spot that doesn't require all that much analysis.

Texas A&M is developing worse shots and allowing better shots than their scores indicate, and the opposite holds true for Mississippi State. In this case, we take the team expected to be doing better against the team expected to be doing worse. We are getting a discount going against a team SQ thinks is being priced for over performance, and value on a team SQ thinks is being priced for under performance .

Trust the data. Back the Bulldogs to win by a full possession or more.

SQ's Projection: MSU 78 - TA&M 70.

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