NCAA Pick of the Day 01/10/25 (107-79): Niagara +1.5 -110

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Analysis:

Another, another, home dog... this time on MAAC Friday, we take the same arduous trip to the Buffalo-area in the freezing cold that St. Peter's is making this weekend.

It is a well known aspect of playing in the conference that going up to visit Niagara and Canisius, who are uniquely out of the way from the rest of the Metro Atlantic, is a feared part of each team's year.

It is cold, high of 28, low of 14, and if you're not used to it, it's going to be tough to, literally, warm up. Now, that's got nothing to do with why we're making this pick, I just find it fun to talk about my favorite conference and add some interesting context out side of, "data says play." Because, you know... that's kinda what we do around here...

Alas, we have a great opportunity to take this home team in a plus environment that also aligns with the data.

There truly might not be a luckier team on defense than SPU. They are allowing just 1.05 PPS, which makes them a top 150 defense in the nation. However, SQ expects 1.15 PPS, which would be 340th in the nation. Truly one of the most drastic differences I've seen in quite some time.

SPU is expected to be allowing opponents to shoot 5% better at the rim, 6% better from deep and 7% better form the midrange... we're talking near 9% difference between expected points and actual... so every time they are expected to allow 70, they've allowed 63... that is a MASSIVE difference and will confuse any decent box-score based model.

Good thing we aren't box score based, eh?

SQ sees through it all, the Peacocks foul (pun not intended) on close to 50% of their defensive possessions and only about 20 teams allow opponents to get better looks...

For whatever reason, SPU has only lost once in Niagara over the last 6 years... but that changes tonight... I agree with our projection, the wrong team is favored. Play the Purple Eagles and expect the defense of St Peter's to regress.

SQ's Projection: NIAG 70 - SPU 65 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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