NCAA Pick of the Day 01/12/25 (108-80): Iona +1.5 -105

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Analysis:

Another, another, another, another home dog... are tired of this yet? NO!

Keep it simple, stupid. SQ says that Iona is the team that develops better shots and allows tougher looks on average. The Gaels have simply been unlucky. Iona has been expected to win six straight games but is just 3-3 in that span, including expected wins vs MAAC leader Marist and then most recently Fairfield at home.

Iona is shooting just 29% from three this season and opponents are shooting 37% against them. Both those numbers should normalize towards 33.5% where expected, but that discrepancy of 8%, net, means that they're being misunderstood by models that look at final scores alone.

This has led to Iona being quantified as a bottom 80-100 team, when SQ says they should be closer to the middle of the pack in the top 200 (of 360 teams). Meanwhile, SQ rates the Bobcats accurately, they are expected to be scoring more as well, but also expected to allowing more points for no net change... maybe an over to be considered? Anyway, the expected difference on Iona makes them a clear SQ darling, meaning you wont need me to tell you to bet on them for a minute - they'd need a run of massive over-performance (think top 150 level efficiency) to get close to what SQ expects them to be. Until expectations meet actual results, they'll have value. Let's go Gaels!

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SQ's Projection: IONA 71 - QUIN 66 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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Yesterday's Pick Recap: USC Upstate +5.5 ❌

Final Score: RAD 80 - USCU 67. Post-Game SQ Score: RAD 71.5 - USCU 67.8 Pre-Game Projection: RAD 74.0 - USCU 73.7

Takeaways: Ooooff... it's always a bit of a multi-faceted reaction for me when I see that my bet was expected to win but, of course, did not. ShotQuality's evaluation of the shots taken yesterday would result in a score of 72 to 68 as its median expectation. A four point SQ loss on a 5.5 point spread.

Now, I would like to see it be a 1 or 2 point SQ loss vs four, because that's probably well within error and more shows me that the line was right than my bet was the 'right side' but it certainly gives an indication that this was no 'bad bet' and that it certainly had a shot to cash for us, even if it lost by 8 points on the final line.

This is the value of SQ, a result like that on the SQ score shows that we shouldn't abandon what brought us to this selection. We chose a bet that had value, the line moved with us from the open, and the SQ supported it - USCU just didn't get lucky on shots falling the way that Radford did. The Highlanders outperformed by 8.5, the Spartans were almost exactly on point. That's college hoops. On to the next.

Recaps are a NEW section to the POTD to help illustrate how SQ data can be used to qualify bets beyond winning and losing!