NCAA Pick of the Day 03/02/25 (129-99-1): UTSA -1 -108

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Analysis:

"The model's got the wrong team favored." Is a phrase I long used when my calculations led to the wrong team having the lower power ranking number in my model vs the one assumed to be setting the betting lines, and we again have the opportunity to break it out here.

When College Basketball teams are estimated to be the same strength as their opponents, theyre usually assigned a line between three and four points at home. Here today we have UTSA at home, and by my and SQ's math, they are the better team, but still they only have a -1 line here at home.

We're going to trust the data and assume thats wrong, and go with the estimation that this game should be closer to a 4.5 point line. Theres style factors too, but at the end of the day, the SQ data encompasses all of that and we want to against the over performing Rice Owls side in this late season match.

SQ's Projection: UTSA 76 - RICE 70.

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