NCAA Pick of the Day 12/12/24 (95-68): Arkansas St. -8 -110

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Analysis:

"Is it just that easy to compare SQ's rankings to efficiency based rankings to find advantages in the betting market?"

Yep. Here at ShotQualityBets we do not just claim that we have the best data in basketball, we have proven it.

I'll reiterate my point from last night, it's not that it's perfect, it's that SQ is more predictive than the other options and, by definition, sees through the variability that defines the sport of basketball. Thus, the Pick of the Day is an exercise in using the data in the most simple ways possible in order to show off how anyone can make advantaged picks when powered by data that allows you to better derive your own edges.

Today's pick is a bit constrained by only having seven possible games to choose from, but there's plenty of reason to like Arkansas State to cover the 8 points at home against UT Arlington. When defending the Mavericks, SQ expects the Ark. St. Red Wolves to be relatively evenly matched. UTA sits at 162nd in adjSQ OFF and ARST is at 170th, currently, in adjSQ DEF. The advantage, is on the other side of the ball. Arlington's defense is 318th in D1 per SQ, and Ark. St.'s offense is a blistering 71st.

The Red Foxes excel at "math ball" or, as we like to say, they have a high Rim & Three Rate (93.1%, 14th best) and they earn an 83rd percentile ranking in shot selection (52nd best) while Arlington surrenders equally bad shot selection on defense (77th %ILE, 293rd best). Arlington allows 1.25 SQPPP at the rim which is bottom 20 in college basketball, and that's where this game will be won.

Ark St is smart, they force a high percentage of midrange shots on defense, keep opponents out of transition and defend the rack decently, but their Achilles heel is their 3PT defense - if this wager is to lose it will come on their inability to defend the three point line off the dribble, and Arlington is coming in shooting 40% from deep. That number is expected to regress to a more reasonable 35% for UTA, so you're getting a good matchup and a team expected to regress offensively with a truly putrid defense.

Lay it with the Red Wolves.

Projection: ARST 83 - UTA 73

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