NCAA Pick of the Day 02/9/25 (118-92-1): Oklahoma State +1 -110

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Analysis:

A lower tier clash in the Big 12 between Oklahoma State and Arizona State, both of whom have just three conference wins, which is tied for second to last. Both teams are struggling to compete with the size and rim dominance that the conference features, but now, against one another, there should be room for the team developing better shots to win.

That would be Oklahoma State, at least it is when considering home court impact and regression. ShotQuality looks at the grade of every shot taken, but before the chicken must come the egg and successfully ending a possession in a shot attempt, rather than a turnover, is the the initial factor we need to consider before even thinking about spacing, shot types, etc...

Arizona State is going to struggle to hold on to the ball against a Cowboys team that SQ ranks at 41st in forcing them. The Sun Devils have the 279th lowest turnover rate, too, so this could get pretty ugly in the half court, before ASU even initializes their action. They also don't really offensively rebound too well, so that should give OSU a good chance to win the shot math by earning more possessions.

It would not shock me to see ASU earn the better point per shot mark, as Oklahoma State can succumb to three point shooting, but still keep the game close by a show of force, and a subsequent high rate of trips to the free throw line.

This will be a sweaty one either way, big shots and big free throws will likely decide the winner and result of this bet, alike. We gotta ride with the Cowboys at home, though, this is a good chance for them to get a win and the SQBets model has a five point edge!

SQ's Projection: OKST 74 - ASU 69.

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