NCAA Pick of the Day 02/21/25 (124-95-1): Iona -3 -110

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Analysis:

The Iona Gales do the type of things in a basketball game that win extra possessions, which, arguably, is the single biggest factor to winning a basketball game. The Gaels are third in the nation in turnover rate forced, and then tenth in the nation in offensive rebound rate. That's lots of free looks at the hoop. They also run their transition attack at conversion rates that mirror some of the best power five schools (1.53 SQPoints Per Possession), forcing their opponents to take extra care of the basketball.

There are certainly some offensive woes here for Iona, but it is the MAAC, after all. They rate 10th in the conference in expected efficiency at the rim, but their 45% rate of rim attack does lead the conference. Their shooting will not impress you and they smartly do not take many shots off the dribble when attempting to hit three pointers.

The Gaels face local rival Manhattan, who are just a fifteen minute drive away on the Cross County Expressway here in New York. Iona is 63-45 all time in the matchup, and 31-13 at home since the teams first started competing in 1946 - but the history is largely irrelevant for predicting this game.

What's much more important is that Iona is coming off an expected win over Quinnipiac that they lost on the road. If they can bring that process home with them, they should bounce back without much friction against a Jaspers side that does not rebound well on defense, does not force turnovers, and is getting beat at the rim almost every night.

SQ's Projection: IONA 74 - MAN 67.

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