NCAA Pick of the Day 01/17/25 (109-84): Boise +3.5 -108

Never miss a pick! Sign up for the POTD email on the home page!

Analysis:

Win a ******* pick, Justin!

We have not hit a winner since Sunday but the nice thing about using data religiously is that there's no human element that goes into selecting this play. It is purely the top SQ supported play based on the same criteria that got us to 109-80... it has also brought us to 109-84. That's life, and gambling, in College Basketball and the best way to deal with it is to trust that this process works and keep pressing. It's been a rare occurrence to see four straight losses in our near 200 CBB pick tenure.

But alight, more than enough time discussing things that aren't, simply, why this pick is valuable - so let's get into it.

This Boise State team is, plainly, the only school in the ShotQuality top 20 that isn't a part of a power five (four?) conference. The Broncos are a top defensive rebounding team and then attack the rim on the other side with a top 20 expected efficiency. They also get to the free throw line at a 40% rate and knock down looks from the charity stripe at a 78% clip, both well within the top 50 nationally.

Defensively they keep you away from the basket, allowing the 33rd fewest shots there this season. If that wasn't enough to convince you of how complete they are, they have supplied the 38th best defense against three point shots this season based on the quality of look allowed. They aren't obsessed with the three but their propensity to get to the rim makes up for it and they can knock down shots from deep when needed. Then, my favorite part - 342nd most mid range shots. Just not taking the worst look in basketball is that important. 60% of their shots will be at the rim or a Catch and Shoot three... good luck.

They line up against a UNM team that definitely has the defense but lacks the offensive skill to support this price. UNM is supported by the 9th fastest tempo in the nation, but Boise should be well prepared to defend their 5th highest rate of transition. Once you stop the ball, the Lobos become a pedestrian half court unit - meaning the matchup will likely depend on Boise ball security and making sure to take advantage of the good looks UNM will give you.

Boise is 2-1 in its last three trips to The Pit, and SQ gave them more than 50% win expectancy in all three of those games. The one loss was by two and UNM got lucky. Boise might not win today, but this line should not be more than a full possession. Either way, we are in for a treat between two of the best teams in the Mountain West, I just expect Boise's ShotQuality supremacy will win out even in hostile territory.

SQ's Projection: UNM 77 - BSU 75 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

Get 15% OFF your first purchase with Code: "POTD" !!

Watch Tonight's Game with ShotQuality Live FOR FREE - SQLive is the only live regression data software with up-to-the-minute expected scores!

Get all 5500+ College Basketball games with SQLive, plus NBA and WNBA games included only with Premium Yearly Membership!

& make sure to watch BetCast to see SQLive in action and learn more about ShotQualityBets!

Yesterday's Pick Recap: Cal Poly -5 ❌

Final Score: UCD 65 - POLY 54. Post-Game SQ Score: UCD 64 - POLY 60. Pre-Game Projection: POLY 81 - UCD 71.

Takeaways: I do not have takeaways, this was the ugliest pick I've made here in weeks. There is no restitution. There will be no excuses. This pick never stood a chance, Poly played significantly worse, everyone including the books was WAY wrong about this matchup, myself included, and I have to eat crow from saying they were better than advertised when they were clearly much worse.

This result might not hurt their value, because SQ saw it closer and the market will probably downgrade them greatly, but we are getting to the point in the season where maybe we have started to find the teams that just are going to consistently under perform their SQ. I say that and Poly will win by 50 next time out, but at the end of the day we trust the data and this was an expected loss ATS by 9 points and an actual one by 16. Not much else to dig into. Gotta avoid the full, five weekday skid. Go Boise.

Recaps are a NEW section to the POTD to help illustrate how SQ data can be used to qualify bets beyond winning and losing!