NCAA Pick of the Day 01/20/25 (109-88): HCU +5.5 (errantly left the 9.5 from the last pick)

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Analysis:

Alright, historically bad result skid aside, Houston Christian is the type of team that SQ will always say to bet on and TAMCC fits the profile of the team to bet against. HCU biggest strength is keeping opponents from shooting threes, taking away the most potent shot in the game. They'll be running into an Islanders team that has been hot, but we all know that when ShotQuality says you're hot, it means there's most likely a cool down around the corner.

TAMCC is currently 4% hotter than expected from deep, and 2% hotter than expected from the rim. They do attack the rim a lot and get to the free throw line as a result, but it appears that they also foul too much on the defensive end and haven't seen the real penalties of 299th best shot selection allowed. They also struggle to develop open threes and even with their high rim rate, the Islanders are outside the top 290 teams in Rim & 3 rate.

To me, that should fall perfectly into the plan that HCU is looking to execute and we're getting a buy low on a HCU team that hasn't played to their fullest potential just yet.

The SQB Projection model has this as a spot where the Huskies might win outright, but we'll stick with the spread and take the value in a great "SQ Spot"

SQ's Projection: HCU 71 - TAMCC 70.5 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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