NCAA Pick of the Day 02/7/25 (118-91-1): Dayton -1 -110

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Analysis:

Dayton is likely the biggest disappointment on the mid-major level with respect to potential ceiling against actual performance. The Flyers were expected to be in contention, if not the clear favorite, for the A10 title. They were so good on paper that people were starting to discuss a two big league...

That scenario has been dead for weeks now.

Dayton sits at 6-4 in conference play, still good for the fourth seed in the A10 tournament, if the season were to end today, but not nearly the performance expected of the squad that opened 27th in KenPom and now sits at 76th. That is a massive departure from what is normally one of the more accurate projection systems in the world. I tend to think the initial projection of a top 30 or 25 team for Dayton wasn't all that incorrect, and they've just been distinctly, maybe unbelievably lucky, to get to this point now.

ShotQuality had them expected to beat George Mason, Massachusetts and George Washington rather than take a string of three brutal losses. SQ also expected them to lose on Jan 24th against St. Joseph's, which could potentially be indicative of the luck starting to turn and the shots starting to fall. The bottom line is that they're undervalued, and their good passing and rebounding should make this a winnable contest. VCU has subsisted off forcing turnovers, so I think Dayton might be well positioned to expose the Rams in the half court on both ends of the floor.

The SQB model has this as a two possession win for Dayton. Take the value on the Flyers who still have big hopes, just likely now have to win their conference tournament to make any type of run.

SQ's Projection: DAY 74.5 - VCU 69.

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