NCAA Pick of the Day 03/07/25 (133-100-1 ): Boise -5.5 -110

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Boise State is the best defensive rebounding team in the country per ShotQuality metrics, and they combine that with being a top-10 expected efficiency team at the rim. They run a strong transition attack, shoot free throws well, and force opponents to foul them, rating in the top-30 for high free-throw rate. They accomplish this with a methodically slow tempo, which makes it very difficult for teams to overcome any deficit they might find themselves in when facing this Boise State team. There will be some revenge on their mind as Boise has only lost two of their last 11 games, and one of them was on the road at Colorado State by three points. The Broncos are a methodical half-court offense that effectively runs ball screens, allowing them to finish at the rim with efficiency, and this Colorado State team will struggle to defend their high level of cut action. The Rams will need to rely on jump shooting on the road to defeat Boise, which is never an easy task, making the right call here to lay it with Boise at home.

SQ's Projection: BSU 75 - CSU 67.

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