NCAA Pick of the Day 02/28/25 (129-97-1): Penn +9 -110

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Analysis:

We meet a Penn Quakers squad that has been a seasonal darling of mine, personally, and they are the only full unit play on my card for the day - which, if you are unaware of my process, is an auto-qualifier to be the POTD, regardless of the SQB model projection.

The Quakers are expected to be shooting better at the rim by 3% in conference play and 9% better from the midrange, they run into a Cornell defense that is over-performing their in-conference defense against the midrange by an oddly equal 9%. Cornell willfully pushes opponents into these shots and Penn knows to avoid them, but I like knowing that I'm probably getting a discounted rate on the Quakers ability to finish a tough possession.

ShotQuality has Penn as one of the unluckiest teams of the year, expecting an additional five wins on their record and an additional seven covers on their season against the spread. That's substantial.

This team is mathematically eliminated with a loss tonight, I think this spread should be closer to four points independently of that fact. Grab the Quakers on the road to at least make it interesting.

SQ's Projection: CORN 81.8 - PENN 73.5.

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