NCAA Pick of the Day 12/29/24 (102-73): Valparaiso +13.5 -110

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Analysis:

We have played this Valparaiso team a few times this season, and likely will continue to until the efficiency models catch up to what ShotQuality's location-based expected scores are able to understand about this team.

We'll go through the specifics momentarily, but the bottom line is simple today; these two teams are much closer to evenly matched than this line implies.

So why, then, are we getting such a price on them? Much of it has to do with simple bad shooting luck. Valpo is a measly 26% from the Midrange. A little quick math and since those are 2pt shots, they're earning just .52 PPP right now. Sure, the midrange is the worst shot in hoops and the entire game has changed since we realized this a few years back, but when you need to get a bucket and the more valuable options are not available, if you can't hit your midrange shots... it's going to look worse than it really is.

SooooOooOooOo yeah imagine if they were shooting 37% from the midrange, which they use at around a 16% clip... an extra 30% of scoring on something like one of six possessions... that adds up quick! At least enough for us to develop an edge against the market which doesn't account for this issue nearly as well.

Add in that Valpo is a net -3% in 3PT shooting luck, expected to be doing 1.5% better and expected to be seeing 1.5% worse on defense... plus Bradley sitting with three of their last four wins (sans Canisius) expected to be much less favorable results.

It's not exactly easy to escape from reality, but ShotQuality data is about the chance a shot will be made - so we remove ourselves from the results and evaluate what the teams are able to do.

Valpo is a good team, they'll limit Bradley's spacing on offense and force the issue at the Free Throw line. Grab the generous +13.5 in this MVC battle.

Projection: BRAD 76 - VALP 71

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