NCAA Pick of the Day 01/16/25 (109-83): Cal Poly -5 -110

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Analysis:

The biggest edge on the board tonight from ShotQuality's industry leading data comes from a battle out in the Big West, as the Cal Poly Mustangs host the UC Davis Aggies in hunt for their first conference win.

That's right, tonight's play asks you to lay five points with an 0-6 Big West team against a squad that many efficiency models list as the 'better team.' However, SQ says that this really is just a big misunderstanding about Cal Poly and they should be expected to be 3-3 so far, or at least 2-4, rather than the unlucky result in which they've found themselves.

This, of course, means we get a spot to buy in for a lesser price than we should be getting. Poly takes a high dose of threes and moves at a top ten pace, which means they have the chance to run away at any point if the shots start falling. Their issue has been bad luck on defense, where opponents are shooting a blinding 40% against them from deep.

They are somewhat responsible, with an expectation of 37% in these shots, but that difference of 3% is one that can, and has, shifted their results. UC Davis will take a lot of threes themselves, but they do not establish much spacing, and as a result, end up taking a very high percent of midrange looks and threes, neither of which rate outside the bottom third of national expected efficiency in the respective shot types.

In all, Davis is a pretty weak defensive side and they're going into the den of a team that can't help but feel like they've been playing much better than their results, and are desperate for a win.

Now, none of that motivation is factored into the SQ model, which still likes the play by five points more than where the line sits. Lock in this Mustang Mascot Matchup out west with the favorite, and let's ride!

SQ's Projection: POLY 81 - UCD 71 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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Yesterday's Pick Recap: Stanford +6.5 ❌

Final Score: WAKE 80 - STAN 67. Post-Game SQ Score: WAKE 78 - STAN 67. Pre-Game Projection: WAKE 74 - STAN 72.

Takeaways: Riding high for three quarters of the game just to see the team you're on fall flat and simply get best in the final five minutes is one of the more gut wrenching ways to suffer a defeat in sports betting, and that's exactly how it felt trying to will Stanford to hang around in the final few minutes of this ACC contest. A futile attempt at best.

Unlike either of the last two losses, this one was much more definitive and not by a hair or a free throw. Stanford fell off late, and was limited to some poor quality looks in the closing possessions to help Wake Forest pull away.

You wouldn't know from the score that for the majority of the game, it felt like it might come down to the wire. It might have just been Wake Forest playing with their food a bit, but there was reason to think Stanford was capable of covering - the SQ score didn't start to indicate otherwise until the last few minutes.

All the more gut wrenching, I suppose, and with much less reasoning to have faith - likely one of the least likely expected winners we've seen in a week or so. Let's just hope we get some reciprocal action to end the week.

Recaps are a NEW section to the POTD to help illustrate how SQ data can be used to qualify bets beyond winning and losing!