NCAA Pick of the Day 01/23/25 (112-86): Monmouth +10 -110

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Analysis:

Elon is a team that has been over performing SQ's expectations for most of the season. Their 9 point win vs Drexel, another team SQ is down on, was expected to be just 5 points, their win over Campbell was expected to be a loss and their defense is one of the biggest candidates for regression in division one.

So much so, that this is really not much of a play on Monmouth - and that's okay. SQ expects Elon to allow a FG% of 60% at the rim, but this season they've allowed just 51%. That's enough of a difference, along with expected defensive regression on middies and 3PT shots, to simply take the teams the Phoenix are up against.

Their offense has been helped by an impressive transition attack that leads to the equivalent of a 69% shot from within the arc on average. Monmouth will likely struggle here, but the bottom line is that Elon is one of the luckiest 25 teams in the nation per SQ, and this is probably another great sell high on their recent performance.

Take the surprising road dog to cover the double digit spread, at the end of the day teams just want to get a win on the sheet in conferences like the coastal, and the SQ model agrees. Go Hawks.

SQ's Projection: ELON 77 - MON 70 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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