NCAA Pick of the Day 12/17/24 (99-70): Valparaiso +21.5 -110

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Analysis:

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As for tonight's pick, I'm rushing to get the show started so let's keep it as simple as can be. The core four efficiency models (KenPom, Torvik, Haslametrics, EvanMiya) see this Valpo team at around 240th in the rankings. The lone maverick being Haslam at 200. ShotQuality takes it further and has the Beacons, whose mascot is a golden retriever... I checked.... at 128th!

That's not the end all be all for a pick, but it is the first signal to investigate. While the Beacons have not had any big losses expected to be wins, they have been expected to do better than they have in their final results; losses expected to be smaller, wins expected to be bigger, etc. They take decent shots (177th), have above average shooters (143rd), take care of the ball well (48th) and get to the free throw line effectively (33rd), which is what you want to see.

Then, OSU is shooting 41% from deep entering tonight's game... that is frankly unsustainable and SQ expected a 35% success rate on their shots based on how well they developed the looks.

Another aggressive model prediction, which didn't go well for us yesterday but if regression occurred every time it was expected to, we'd be on a beach somewhere. Sports are still sports, and last night we saw that sometimes hot teams don't cool off - but that doesn't mean the value isn't there, just that we didn't get it home in that instance. Tonight is another valuable spot. Take the large dog.

Projection: Ohio State 80 - Valparaiso 67

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