NCAA Pick of the Day 01/29/25 (113-90): Wichita +4.5 -110

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Analysis:

Wichita State leads the nation in rim attack rate, with 52% of their shots coming from underneath the basket. They also force the 14th most midrange shots in the Division 1, so, off the bat, they are doing the types of things that we like to see when building a shot profile. Their looks at the rim are struggling to fall, with a 2% expected positive regression in the shot type.

Their opponent today, North Texas, does excel on defense - but when you manage to get to the rim, they give up a very high ShotQuality rating. The difficulty, of course, is that they are designed not to let you get to the hoop and then defend the alternate shot types incredibly well. Thus, this game will truly be a classic clash of styles where the team that is able to get the other to bend to their will should end up victorious.

The Mean Green force turnovers, instead, when opponents attempt to drive, with an elite 21% rate on defense. Wichita should be prepared, they only turn the ball over 15% of the time, which is just outside the top 50. Moreso, the North Texas offense has been over performing, and this should be a good combination of a buy low on Wichita and a sell high on UNT. Take the points with the home dog, as SQ projects an outright win.

SQ's Projection: WICH 70 - UNT 68 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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