NCAA Pick of the Day 01/27/25 (112-89): Iowa +8 -108

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Analysis:

Iowa has been largely unlucky on defense, and has a ferocious offense that can score against almost any team. They develop the 5th best spacing in the country, and the 5th best SQPPP on Rim and Three shots.

These are distinctly factors that Ohio State's defense is expected to be struggling with, but where the regression has yet to hit. SQ expects the buckeyes defense to be allowing 4% better shooting from each of the midrange, at the rim, and from behind the arc. Meanwhile the Buckeyes are expected to regress on offense from three point and at the rim, albeit the latter very slightly. Still, it's not in the positive direction, which means at best their offense is what we've been seeing.

The important part is that this is a buy low on Iowa. Good passing, good at the rim, good shooting, don't turn it over and move fast.

SQ says OSU by two, and I have it by three. Grab the +8 or +7.5 here.

SQ's Projection: OSU 80 - IOWA 78 Visit the Matchup Simulator with any membership to view all projections from the model!

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