NBA Player Props Research

Picks and predictions for NBA basketball player props.

NBA Basketball


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Player Props Research Tips

Player Props Research picks are powered by the ShotQuality Edge. The Edge shows how confident the model is its prediction. Here's how it works.

πŸ’° First we convert the odds into a percentage. -110 means that BetMGM has a 52.4% chance of winning -110 / (-110 / 100).

πŸ€ Next the ShotQuality model predicts what the player will score using variables like usage, efficiency, past performance against SQ projections, playing time, injuries, etc... The model outputs a percentage that the predicted outcome will happen. For example tonight SQ has 60.7% confidence that Klay Thompson will go under 23.5 points.

πŸ’₯ Finally we calculate our edge. The edge is the difference between SQ's Confidence and BetMGM's chance of winning. In this example 60.7% - 52.4% = 8.36% Edge.

Simple math. The higher the edge, the greater the advantage over the odds.

How to select a props pick

1. All plays shown on the props page are recommended bets. Recommended bets are bets with a ShotQuality Edge. The Edge is how confident the model is in it’s projection.

2. The Best Bet is the best sportsbook for the Props Pick.

How to evaluate a prop

1. Click on any Props Pick to see the player details

2. Use the ShotQuality Scores vs actual scores past performance to evaluate the chance of the Props Pick performing.

Wining Metrics