NCAA Pick of the Day 12/30/24 (103-73): Cal. Baptist +4.5 -110

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Analysis:

Today we have a nine-win team in UC Irvine that ShotQuality expects to only have seven wins, going up against a Cal Baptist team that actually does have seven wins, but SQ expects them to actually have nine-wins.

That's a -20% record luck for Irvine and a +15% record luck for Baptist. It is not easy to find such a big net luck difference at this point in the season, but the Anteaters are hot. Their shot making ranks in the top 10th of D1 while their shot selection sits outside the top 60th percentile. They have wins over Kent, Towson and LMU that SQ expected to be losses, and their wins over UNI and Kennesaw were expected to be single point victories.

That is simply too much good luck to ignore, and it aligns with their regression chart where teams are expected to be shooting 9.5% better against them on shots at the rim. So their opponents are simply missing against them on easy, valuable looks.

Cal Baptist isn't going to have that problem. They shoot 53% ATR and that's still 4% below the 57% SQ expects, which is around 157th in D1. They'll force the issue with a high rate of attacking the basket as well, along with a good rim & three rate, plus low turnover rate. This is a good spot to take this Baptist team at home that SQ's net expected numbers indicate is the better team. They might win, as our model suggests, but at the very least this should be a close game.

Consider a ML sprinkle, perhaps, but the official play is the +4.5 - should be good through most movement. It's a big edge.

Projection: CBU 74.5 - UCI 70

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